Namibia’s energy sector is bracing for pivotal updates as President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah prepares to deliver a keynote address at a major upstream conference in Windhoek this week, following her recent decision to centralize control of the oil and gas sector under her office. The move, which mirrors similar actions by Nigerian leaders Bola Tinubu and his predecessor Muhammadu Buhari, has sparked a mix of anticipation and unease among exploration and production (E&P) companies seeking clarity on the implications for investment, regulation, and governance in this strategically vital industry.
Since assuming office in March after a decisive victory for the long-ruling SWAPO party, President Nandi-Ndaitwah—affectionately known locally as “NNN”—has moved swiftly to consolidate authority over Namibia’s burgeoning oil and gas sector. Her reorganization of governance structures, which shifts oversight directly to the presidency, marks a significant departure from previous administrative frameworks and raises questions about the future of regulatory transparency, bureaucratic efficiency, and stakeholder engagement. The upcoming speech, slated for this week at the Namibia International Energy Conference (NIEC), is widely seen as an opportunity for the president to outline her vision for the sector amid mounting speculation.
The decision to centralize control follows in the footsteps of Nigeria, where Tinubu and Buhari similarly concentrated power over oil and gas within the presidency, arguing that streamlined decision-making would enhance operational efficiency and attract investment. However, critics of such models warn of risks associated with reduced checks and balances, including potential bottlenecks, opacity in licensing, and diminished accountability. For Namibia, a nation on the cusp of transforming its economy through offshore hydrocarbon discoveries, the stakes are particularly high.
“This move could either accelerate Namibia’s emergence as a global energy player or introduce new complexities for investors,” a Windhoek-based energy analyst said. “The industry is eager to understand how the presidency plans to balance centralized control with the need for collaborative governance, especially given Namibia’s commitment to transparency in resource management.”
Nandi-Ndaitwah’s ascent to power comes at a critical juncture for Namibia. The SWAPO party, which has governed since independence in 1990, secured a reduced majority in last year’s elections, reflecting growing public demand for economic reform and equitable resource distribution. Her administration faces dual pressures: to capitalize on recent oil discoveries in the Orange Basin—such as Shell’s Jonker-1X and TotalEnergies’ Venus-1X finds—and to address systemic challenges, including youth unemployment exceeding 46% and persistent income inequality.
The president’s centralization of the energy sector is viewed by some as an effort to fast-track development and ensure that hydrocarbon revenues directly benefit national priorities. However, industry players remain cautious. E&P firms, many of which are already active in Namibia’s offshore zones, have called for clearer guidelines on licensing, local content requirements, and environmental regulations. “Predictability is key for long-term investments,” said an executive from a European oil major, speaking on condition of anonymity. “We need to know how this structural shift will affect permitting timelines and stakeholder consultations.”
The Nigerian parallel looms large in these discussions. While Buhari’s consolidation of oil authority aimed to curb corruption and inefficiency, critics argue it exacerbated bureaucratic delays and deterred investors. Tinubu’s recent reforms, including the controversial removal of fuel subsidies, have further polarized opinion. For Namibia, a country lauded for its stable governance and low corruption levels, the challenge lies in adopting best practices while avoiding pitfalls observed elsewhere.
President Nandi-Ndaitwah, a seasoned politician and former deputy prime minister, has historically championed resource nationalism. Her tenure as minister of international relations saw her advocate for African solidarity in global trade negotiations, a stance that may inform her approach to energy diplomacy. Observers suggest her centralized model could enhance Namibia’s bargaining power in deals with international oil companies (IOCs), ensuring favorable fiscal terms and robust local participation.
Namcor, the state-owned petroleum corporation, currently holds a 10% carried interest in all offshore licences, a policy designed to safeguard national interests. However, the president’s recent moves have fueled speculation about potential adjustments to this framework. “There’s talk of increasing Namcor’s equity or introducing new local content mandates,” said a senior government official. “But until the president speaks, everything is conjecture.”
Environmental and social governance (ESG) concerns also feature prominently in the debate. Namibia has committed to generating 70% of its energy from renewables by 2030, even as it pursues offshore oil and gas development. Civil society groups warn that centralized control must not come at the expense of environmental safeguards or community rights. “
As the countdown to Nandi-Ndaitwah’s address continues, the broader implications for Namibia’s democracy linger. SWAPO’s reduced majority in parliament means Nandi-Ndaitwah’s policies will face heightened scrutiny from opposition parties and civil society.
This week’s speech is expected to address these multifaceted issues head-on, offering insights into licensing frameworks, partnership models, and socio-economic priorities. With Namibia poised to become a significant hydrocarbon exporter, the president’s words could either galvanize investor confidence or deepen uncertainties.