Namibia’s trade landscape witnessed a notable shift in February 2025, as the country’s import bill contracted by 9.3% month-on-month, reflecting both temporary supply chain adjustments and broader economic pressures. According to the latest Macro Pulse: Trade Statistics-February’25 report by Simonis Storm, Namibia imported goods worth N$12.2 billion in February, down from N$13.4 billion in January. While this decline signals a short-term easing of import dependency, the figure remains 21.5% higher compared to February 2024, underscoring persistent structural reliance on foreign goods. The data highlights Namibia’s delicate balancing act between managing external vulnerabilities and capitalizing on improving trade fundamentals.
The monthly contraction was driven by reduced imports across several key categories. Copper ores and concentrates saw the sharpest drop, plunging by over N$1.6 billion, while imports of aircraft, fertilizers, and iron or steel products also declined. These reductions reflect a combination of seasonal demand fluctuations, inventory adjustments, and cautious procurement by industries amid global economic uncertainty. Despite the dip, critical imports such as petroleum oils (12.7% of total imports), motor vehicles for commercial use (4.0%), and inorganic chemical elements (3.7%) retained their dominance, underscoring their necessity for local energy, logistics, and manufacturing sectors. South Africa remained Namibia’s largest import partner, supplying 38.6% of goods, followed by China (10.4%), India (9.7%), and the Democratic Republic of Congo (6.2%).
The decline in imports contributed to a narrowing of Namibia’s trade deficit, which improved to N$2.0 billion in February from N$2.7 billion in January. This marks a significant recovery from the N$3.9 billion deficit recorded in February 2024, reflecting stronger export performance over the past year. Cumulative exports for the first two months of 2025 reached N$20.8 billion, up 17.5% year-on-year, driven by robust demand for uranium, non-monetary gold, and fish. However, February’s export earnings of N$10.1 billion represented a 5.1% monthly decline, signalling potential headwinds for Namibia’s export-reliant economy.
Analysts attribute the mixed trade figures to a confluence of local and global factors. Domestically, efforts to stabilize supply chains and reduce over-reliance on volatile imports have begun yielding results. Internationally, however, Namibia faces mounting pressures from shifting trade policies and regional economic fragility. The recent imposition of U.S. tariffs—a 21% duty on Namibian exports and a 30% surcharge on South African goods—has introduced fresh challenges. While Namibia’s direct exposure to the U.S. market is limited, the ripple effects of these measures are already reverberating through Southern Africa’s interconnected economies.
South Africa, Namibia’s largest trading partner and conduit for 60% of its imports, is grappling with the fallout of the U.S. tariffs. A weaker South African rand, which hit 19.51/USD following the tariff announcement, has tightened financial conditions across the region. For Namibia, whose currency is pegged to the rand, this depreciation risks driving up the cost of imported goods, particularly fuel, machinery, and food. “The rand’s slide is a double-edged sword,” noted a Simonis Storm analyst. “While it makes Namibian exports more competitive, it also inflates import costs, squeezing households and businesses already facing stagnant wages.”
The tariff regime has also cast a shadow over Namibia’s fiscal stability. Through the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) revenue-sharing agreement, Namibia derives a significant portion of its budget from tariffs collected on regional trade. Reduced South African export activity could shrink SACU revenues, limiting the government’s capacity to fund public services and infrastructure projects. This interdependency underscores the urgency for Namibia to diversify its trade partnerships and reduce overreliance on South Africa.
Despite these challenges, Namibia’s trade sector has shown resilience. The mining sector, which accounts for over half of export earnings, continues to anchor economic activity. Uranium exports alone contributed N$2.66 billion (26.3% of total exports) in February, with China and France as primary buyers. Non-monetary gold (N$1.78 billion) and fish (N$1.21 billion) further solidified their roles as key export pillars. Notably, Namibia has begun diversifying its export destinations, with Zambia emerging as a growing market, absorbing 12.3% of exports alongside traditional partners like South Africa (25.5%) and China (23.3%).
Looking ahead, Namibia’s trade outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The government has prioritized infrastructure upgrades—including port expansions at Walvis Bay, rail modernization, and road network improvements—to enhance logistics efficiency and attract new trade routes. Investments in digital customs systems and blockchain technology aim to streamline cross-border transactions, reducing delays and costs. These initiatives align with broader regional goals under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which seeks to unlock intra-African trade opportunities.
However, external risks loom large. Global supply chain disruptions, fluctuating commodity prices, and geopolitical tensions continue to threaten trade stability. The U.S. tariff escalation, in particular, has exposed the fragility of export-dependent economies. “Namibia cannot afford complacency,” warned a policy expert cited in the report. “Diversifying trade partners, boosting local value-addition, and strengthening regional infrastructure are no longer optional—they’re imperative for long-term resilience.”
For now, the decline in imports offers a temporary reprieve, easing pressure on Namibia’s trade balance. Yet, the broader narrative remains one of cautious adaptation. As the country navigates a complex web of global uncertainties and regional dependencies, its ability to leverage strategic investments and policy agility will determine whether 2025 becomes a year of sustained growth or renewed challenges. In the words of one analyst, “Namibia’s trade story is still being written, but the plot twists are coming faster than ever.”