Things are moving fast in Namibia, one of the world’s hot spots for oil and gas exploration and development. Companies continue to actively drill in the Orange Basin as they assess the production potential of discovered and prospective resources in the emerging deepwater play. But with key investment decisions looming for multiple operators, Namibia’s new government dropped a bombshell last weekend with an announcement that President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah has made drastic changes to the oil ministry and will herself oversee the nascent oil and gas sector.
The decision, framed by the presidency as a move to “streamline governance and accelerate strategic priorities,” has sent shockwaves through an industry that has poured billions into Namibia’s offshore prospects. Since 2022, major discoveries by TotalEnergies, Shell, and Galp Energia in the Orange Basin have positioned the country as Africa’s most promising frontier for hydrocarbons. TotalEnergies’ Venus-1X discovery alone is estimated to hold over 3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, with first production targeted for 2029. Shell’s Graff-1 and Jonker-1 finds, alongside Galp’s Mopane complex, further cemented Namibia’s reputation as a global exploration darling.
Centralization sparks uncertainty
President Nandi-Ndaitwah’s abrupt dissolution of the Ministry of Mines and Energy’s petroleum division—tasked with licensing, regulation, and stakeholder engagement—has raised concerns about bureaucratic delays and policy continuity. The sector, previously managed by Minister Tom Alweendo, now falls under the direct purview of the presidency, with a yet-to-be-named technical committee to assist in oversight.
Industry insiders fear the restructuring could stall final investment decisions (FIDs) for projects like Venus, where TotalEnergies had been expected to greenlight development by late 2025. “This creates a vacuum at the worst possible time,” said a senior executive at a European oil major active in Namibia, speaking anonymously. “Companies need clarity on fiscal terms, permitting, and infrastructure plans. Centralizing power without a clear roadmap risks alienating investors.”
Analysts note parallels with other African nations where sudden administrative overhauls disrupted resource development. “Resource nationalism isn’t uncommon, but timing is critical,” said Energy Intelligence analyst Clara van der Walt. “Namibia’s lack of established oil governance frameworks means this move amplifies risks. Investors may adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach, delaying capital inflows.”
Political gambit or strategic pivot?
The presidency defended the decision, emphasizing “alignment with national development goals” under the ruling SWAPO party’s “prosperity agenda.” In a statement, Nandi-Ndaitwah asserted that direct oversight would “eliminate bureaucratic redundancies” and ensure oil revenues benefit Namibians through job creation and social programs. However, critics argue the move consolidates power ahead of 2026 elections, where SWAPO faces mounting pressure over high unemployment and inequality.
The shake-up coincides with heightened scrutiny of Namibia’s resource contracts. In 2023, civil society groups criticized terms favouring international firms, urging renegotiation to secure larger state stakes. While the government has denied plans to revise existing agreements, the absence of a dedicated oil ministry fuels speculation that Windhoek may seek tighter control over future deals.
Investor jitters and regional rivalries
Namibia’s regulatory ambiguity contrasts sharply with regional competitor South Africa, which recently fast-tracked offshore gas development to address its energy crisis. “Investors have options,” said van der Walt. “If Namibia falters, capital could shift to Mozambique’s LNG projects or even South Africa’s untapped basins.” For now, operators remain publicly committed. TotalEnergies confirmed it is “evaluating the administrative changes” but reiterated plans to advance Venus. Shell, which is drilling its Lesedi-1X well, stated it “maintains constructive dialogue with Namibian authorities.” Smaller players like ReconAfrica, exploring onshore in the Kavango Basin, face steeper challenges. “Junior explorers rely on regulatory stability. This adds another layer of risk,” said a Toronto-based analyst.
The road ahead
The presidency has pledged to unveil a transition plan by October, including details on licensing, local content policies, and revenue management. Key questions linger: Will Namibia establish a sovereign wealth fund? How will environmental and social safeguards be enforced without a dedicated ministry?
For President Nandi-Ndaitwah, the stakes are high. Oil and gas could transform Namibia’s economy, projected to grow by 4.5% in 2025. The sector promises billions in annual revenues and thousands of jobs—a lifeline for a nation grappling with drought and fiscal constraints. Yet, as one diplomat in Windhoek cautioned, “Speed and transparency are vital. The world is watching whether Namibia can balance political ambitions with investor confidence.”
As drillships continue to probe the Orange Basin’s depths, Namibia’s hydrocarbon future hangs in the balance. The country’s star hasn’t dimmed yet, but the path to becoming Africa’s next energy powerhouse just got rockier.
Additional reporting by Energy Intelligence