According to multiple sources, Cape Town-based Rhino Resources has confirmed the discovery of hydrocarbons at its Capricornus-1X exploration well in the offshore Orange Basin, reigniting hopes for a transformative economic windfall. While it remains premature to declare the find commercially viable, the breakthrough marks another milestone in Namibia’s quest to harness its offshore potential, offering early validation for President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah’s administration, which assumed office last month amid high expectations for resource-driven growth.
The Capricornus-1X well, located in Petroleum Exploration Licence (PEL) 85, was spudded two months ago in partnership with state-owned National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia (Namcor), global energy giants BP and Eni, via their Azule Energy joint venture. The discovery adds momentum to the Orange Basin’s reputation as a hotspot for hydrocarbon exploration, following major finds by Shell and TotalEnergies in adjacent blocks. Though Rhino Resources has yet to release detailed data on the reservoir’s size or quality, industry insiders describe the results as “encouraging,” with further analysis required to determine flow rates and economic feasibility.
For President Nandi-Ndaitwah, who has prioritized economic diversification and job creation since her inauguration, the news arrives at a critical juncture. Namibia, despite its vast mineral and marine resources, continues to grapple with unemployment rates exceeding 20% and stark income inequality. A commercially viable hydrocarbon discovery could unlock billions in investment, create skilled jobs, and generate state revenues to fund infrastructure and social programs. “This discovery aligns with our vision to leverage natural resources for inclusive growth,” said a presidential spokesperson. “While cautious optimism is warranted, we are committed to ensuring any future developments benefit all Namibians.”
The Orange Basin, stretching along Namibia’s southern coastline, has emerged as one of Africa’s most prospective offshore regions following Shell’s 2022 Jonker-1X light oil discovery and TotalEnergies’ Venus-1X find, estimated to hold over 2 billion barrels of oil. Rhino’s entry into this competitive arena—via its partnership with Azule Energy, a BP-Eni collaboration formed in 2022—underscores the basin’s strategic allure. Azule, which holds a 45% stake in PEL 85, brings technical expertise and financial heft to the project, while Namcor’s 10% equity ensures local participation in line with Namibia’s empowerment policies.
However, the path from exploration to production is fraught with challenges. Rhino Resources and its partners must now conduct extensive testing, including flow rate assessments and seismic studies, to evaluate the reservoir’s commercial potential—a process that could take months. Even if the find proves viable, first production would likely be years away, requiring billions in infrastructure investment. For Rhino, a junior explorer, the partnership with Azule mitigates financial risk, leveraging BP and Eni’s deepwater experience to navigate complex technical hurdles.
The discovery also highlights Namibia’s evolving role as a collaborative player in global energy markets. By mandating local equity participation and prioritizing partnerships with established firms, the government has sought to balance investor confidence with national interest. Namcor’s involvement in PEL 85, though minor, ensures the state retains a foothold in decision-making and revenue-sharing.
Environmental concerns, however, loom large. Offshore drilling remains contentious amid global calls to transition from fossil fuels, and Namibia’s commitment to renewable energy—including ambitious green hydrogen projects—creates a delicate balancing act. President Nandi-Ndaitwah’s administration has pledged to pursue a “dual strategy” of developing hydrocarbons for short-to-medium-term gains while investing in renewables for long-term sustainability.
As the global energy industry watches Namibia’s ascent, the Capricornus-1X well serves as a reminder of the high-stakes nature of exploration. For Rhino Resources and its partners, the next steps involve meticulous appraisal work. For Namibia, the discovery underscores the transformative potential of its offshore riches—and the imperative to steward them wisely.
In the coming months, all eyes will be on the Orange Basin, where the interplay of geology, economics, and governance could redefine Namibia’s trajectory. Whether this discovery becomes a cornerstone of national prosperity or a footnote in exploration history depends on the data yet to surface. For now, optimism floats as steadily as an offshore rig, riding the waves of possibility.