Research firm Simonis Storm has said that the outlook for the local fishing sector has changed from relatively flat to negative in 2023 and this is mainly as a result of on-going illegal fishing by Angolan companies in Namibian waters according to industry contacts.
“This has negatively impacted Namibia’s stock of fish and could imply that the total allowable catch (TAC) should decrease as scientists ought to account for illegal fishing in protecting Namibia’s biomass,” economist Theo Klein said adding: “We are aware that illegal fishing has caused problems for certain sub-sectors in the fishing industry and can have a material impact on total fish landings.”
The value of fish exports increased by 21.5% y/y in December 2022, compared to 31.3% y/y in November 2022. On a monthly basis fish exports nearly doubled, rising 50.0% m/m in December 2022.
“The weak Rand exchange rate ought to benefit fish export earnings in 1Q2023, however, we expect export earnings could decrease as fish landings are expected to decrease notably from last year,” Klein added.
Klein also spoke about Horticulture noting that it seems the La Nina phenomenon is not proving to benefit Namibia much this year.
“Many areas crucial for local food production still have not received adequate, timely or sufficient rain which is therefore expected to limit crop production in 2023. This is also evidenced by current water dam levels being below levels recorded 12-months ago. We therefore maintain our negative stance on crop farming activities in 2023 which will likely weigh on agricultural growth for the year,” he said.
He went on to say that in previous reports, they discussed the astronomical increase in fertiliser prices since Russia invaded Ukraine early 2022.
“In this month’s report, we show the values of fertiliser imports in Namibia and observe an increase in the value of these imports. A weaker Rand exchange rate and significant increases in global fertiliser prices all contributed to the steady increase in fertiliser costs. Crop farming on a smaller scale could also have led to a lower quantity of fertiliser being imported over this time. This is supported by data from the Agronomic Board which show that the number of hectares being farmed in Namibia is declining,” Klein noted.
Furthermore, Klein explained that as a result of interrupted electricity supply in South Africa, certain towns do not have sufficient water due to pumps not being able to operate. This has led to a shortage of water for farmers who now cannot use their irrigation systems at full capacity, with prolonged loadshedding also preventing irrigation systems from being utilised efficiently.
“This is expected to reduce crop production in South Africa and so food price inflation can remain on an upward trend in 2023. Local food prices are also at risk of seeing further increases as we import most of our food from South Africa. Indeed, the NAB indicated that Namibia produces only between 20% to 30% of our annual food requirement, making the country vulnerable to crop production and therefore prices in South Africa,” explained Klein.