In a development potentially reshaping Namibia’s burgeoning oil landscape, French energy giant TotalEnergies may be poised to secure a major operating stake in the colossal Mopane discovery, having reportedly outmaneuvered rival bids, including one from Brazil’s Petrobras. This move signals a significant consolidation of TotalEnergies’ position in the highly coveted Orange Basin, positioning the company to potentially dominate one of the world’s most exciting new oil frontiers.
The clearest indication recently came from Petrobras Chief Executive Magda Chambriard, who confirmed to Reuters that the Brazilian national oil company had been outbid by TotalEnergies for a stake in Mopane. “We hope to be invited to help develop Mopane,” Chambriard stated, expressing continued interest despite the setback but declining to provide further specifics. This admission presumably places TotalEnergies firmly in the lead position to become Galp’s key partner and likely future operator of the vast discovery.
The Mopane discovery, located offshore Namibia in the prolific Orange Basin, represents a truly enormous resource. Operator Galp Energia of Portugal has previously indicated that the Mopane complex could hold an estimated 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Discovered through a successful drilling campaign concluding earlier this year, Mopane has rapidly become one of the crown jewels of Namibia’s nascent offshore oil sector, generating intense interest from international supermajors eager to secure a slice of its potential.
Galp, holding an 80% operating stake in Petroleum Exploration Licence 83 (PEL 83) where Mopane is located (alongside partners NAMCOR and Custos with 10% each), is actively seeking to farm down its interest to bring in a major partner with the financial muscle and technical expertise required for development. This process, reignited recently, involves soliciting bids from pre-qualified players. While Galp maintains the process is “open and competitive,” aiming for a deal by the end of 2025, industry sources and statements from rival executives point towards TotalEnergies having submitted a compelling, potentially winning offer.
The significance of TotalEnergies securing Mopane extends far beyond a single asset. It represents a strategic masterstroke in the context of the Orange Basin’s extraordinary promise. Straddling the maritime border between Namibia and South Africa, the Orange Basin has emerged as one of the hottest exploration theatres globally following a string of massive discoveries starting with Shell’s Graff and TotalEnergies’ own Venus find in Namibian waters. Venus alone is estimated to hold multiple billions of barrels of recoverable resources, and TotalEnergies is already advancing its development planning. The basin’s geology shares similarities with other world-class petroleum systems, offering the potential for significant, high-quality light oil resources.
One market source familiar with the region who was recently quoted by Upstream drew a direct parallel to ExxonMobil’s dominant position in Guyana’s Stabroek Block, suggesting TotalEnergies is strategically attempting to replicate that success in the Orange Basin. “(They) will control the entire fairway and will make it their next 30 years golden egg,” the source commented, highlighting that TotalEnergies already operates exploration blocks in the South African portion of the Orange Basin. Adding the giant Mopane discovery to its portfolio, alongside Venus, would give TotalEnergies an unparalleled position across this prolific geological trend within Namibian waters, essentially locking down a vast swathe of the most prospective acreage.
This potential consolidation underscores the immense value placed on the Namibian Orange Basin. Its deepwater potential, proximity to major shipping routes, and the quality of discoveries to date have triggered a modern-day oil rush, attracting virtually every major international oil company. Besides TotalEnergies, Petrobras, Chevron, Shell, ExxonMobil, and Australia’s Woodside Energy have all been reported as parties previously engaged in talks with Galp regarding Mopane. Petrobras, despite missing out on Mopane, has demonstrated its regional ambition, acquiring stakes offshore South Africa in 2023 and in São Tomé and Príncipe in early 2024, where it plans to drill this year.
Galp itself remains publicly circumspect. A company spokesperson reiterated the official stance, stating, “Galp is not commenting on the news flow and confirms what was said at the first-quarter earnings call about the Namibia farm-down process and timings. It remains an open and competitive process.” This carefully worded statement maintains procedural transparency while neither confirming nor denying the reports of TotalEnergies’ leading bid. Co-Chief Executive Maria Joao Carioca had indicated in late April that Galp was “re-engaging with the interested parties,” aiming to finalize a deal within the next eighteen months.
For Namibia, the prospect of TotalEnergies operating both Venus and Mopane presents a scenario of concentrated expertise and accelerated development potential. The government has consistently emphasized its desire for efficient development that maximizes national benefit. Having a single, financially robust operator with deep basin knowledge could streamline project execution and infrastructure planning across these massive, neighbouring discoveries. The combined resource base controlled by TotalEnergies would represent a transformative influx of hydrocarbon reserves, potentially catapulting Namibia into the ranks of significant global oil producers and generating substantial future revenue streams.
While the final agreement between Galp and its chosen partner is yet to be formally announced, the signals from Petrobras and industry observers strongly suggest that TotalEnergies has secured pole position. If confirmed, this move would represent a defining moment for Namibia’s oil industry, placing a vast portion of its most promising resources under the operatorship of a single, deeply invested supermajor. TotalEnergies’ ambition to establish the Orange Basin appears to be taking a giant leap forward with the anticipated capture of the Mopane prize, setting the stage for decades of development and solidifying Namibia’s status as a global energy hotspot. The eyes of the global energy market now turn to Galp and TotalEnergies, awaiting official confirmation of a deal that could reshape southern Africa’s energy landscape.