Namibia’s railway system is currently at a crossroads, urgently requiring upgrades to accommodate the anticipated increase in demand, with one key element that requires urgent attention being the availability of suitable rolling stock, a Green Hydrogen Business Alliance (H2BA) commissioned report highlights.
Systemiq conducted the report between December 2023 and May 2024 at the request of the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), Ministry of Industrialisation and Trade (MIT), and on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).
It notes that the rail system currently handles 1.6 million tons of goods per year and needs to scale up significantly to support potential increases of 2 to 5 million tons by 2026.
“This surge can be expected if projects such as the Lodestone iron ore mine begin producing and if partnerships with regional sources of iron ore—e.g., South African iron ore mines—move ahead. Interestingly, this aligns with TransNamib’s current 5-year plan, which forecasts moving around 4 million tons by 2030. The plan includes purchasing 25 new locomotives and around 300 units—ranging from flat wagons for mining commodities to fuel tankers and asset tankers—and refurbishing some existing locomotives,” the report affirms, adding that these upgrades are essential for leveraging emerging opportunities and supporting the sustainable growth of Namibia’s green industries and must be prioritised with haste given the 18-24 month lead time typically needed between ordering and receiving a new locomotive.
The Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) implements the H2BA and assists the Namibian government in developing a sustainable and inclusive green hydrogen economy.
Beyond rolling stock, several key improvements to the rail line infrastructure itself are also critical to meeting the demands of an expanding industrial sector.
While TransNamib maintains the rail lines and owns the rolling stock assets, the rail lines themselves are owned by the Ministry of Works and Transport; the Ministry of Finance and Public Enterprises is the third stakeholder in Namibia’s rail governance.
“All three parties therefore will need to work together to align on the necessary priorities to facilitate Namibia’s green industrialization. Firstly, modernising the signalling and train control systems will enhance safety and efficiency across the network. Secondly, increasing the axle load capacity from 16.5 tonnes/axle load to international standards (e.g., 18.5 tonnes/axle load in Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries) is essential for accommodating heavier freight loads; currently, only around 25% of the Namibian national rail network meets that standard.
“Thirdly, developing new rail lines to connect mining sites to hydrogen hubs and ports and possibly extending or upgrading existing lines to integrate with regional mining activities (below) will be critical. Regarding maintenance, resolving ongoing issues is crucial for ensuring the longevity and functionality of the rail infrastructure. This step is vital for preventing disruptions in service, which could impede industrial operations,” recommends the report.
The report also reveals that discussions are underway about potential rail network extensions to strengthen Namibia’s connectivity with neighboring countries and enhance its role as a transport corridor.
One proposed extension is a new rail line to South Africa, specifically designed for the transportation of iron ore and manganese. Another noteworthy proposal is the TransKalahari line connecting with Botswana, which would serve as an alternative route to South Africa for transporting CRM (copper, nickel, and manganese) from Botswana to Namibian ports. Similarly, discussions include improving connections with Zambia to ensure efficient copper transport to the coast.
“These extensions would significantly strengthen regional trade links and support the industrial sector’s growth in Namibia and beyond. The report explains that while most of these rail infrastructure upgrades and extensions are already under discussion, the new green industrialisation paradigm will magnify their significance, necessitating a concerted effort to prioritise “no-regret” actions, including solving the investment issue.
Notably, the authors of the report recommend decarbonising rail transport as also essential for Namibia, as the sector heavily relies on diesel-powered locomotives, significantly contributing to its carbon footprint.
“Several promising methods are available for achieving zero emissions in rail transport: electrification via overhead catenary systems, hydrogen fuel cells, and battery-powered locomotives. Electrifying the rail network through overhead lines commonly used in western countries like France involves high capital expenditures and faces risks such as copper cable theft, a challenge recently highlighted in South Africa.
“Meanwhile, hydrogen fuel cells are gaining traction in Namibia, where TransNamib is advancing a pilot project for dual-fuel locomotives that utilise both hydrogen and diesel. However, hydrogen’s zero-emission potential is critically dependent on its production source and extraction process efficiency. Another viable option for TransNamib may be battery-electric locomotives, supported by the recent advancements in battery technology, falling battery costs, increased energy densities, and the availability of affordable renewable electricity in Namibia,” the report reads in part.