On a month-on-month basis live exports saw a 27.80% decline from the 13 899 heads exported in September to 10 035 heads exported in October.
According to the Meat Board of Namibia, live exports are 36.0% lower than a year ago and 41.94% lower than the 5-year average.
“Cattle live exports were dominated by South African feedlots and abattoirs (99.9%) as destinations with Botswana accounting for only 0.1% during the month of October. Export abattoirs experienced decline of 41.04% on an m-o-m basis. Since May 2023, there has been an almost 50% increase in the number of cattle slaughtered at export abattoirs, compared to previous years.
“The number of cattle slaughtered YTD is 40.69% more than what was slaughtered at export abattoirs last year. This shift in marketing could be due to the shift in the number of cattle slaughtered at B&C class abattoirs being absorbed by export abattoirs. Based on historic trends, it is expected that cattle marketed at export and local abattoirs as well as live exports will remain low as we approach the festive season, which may push up producer and auction prices,” said the Board.
Weaner Auction prices continue to exhibit fluctuation with a notable decline being experienced from early 2022 to mid-2023. October weaner prices are a significant 35.27% lower than they were a year ago.
“nVCF auction Prices have been on a continuous increase so far, with heifer prices increasing from the April low of N$18.52/kg to N$26.55/kg in October. Tolly prices have also experienced increases from the April lows of N$14.94/kg to N$23.45/kg in October. sVCF Abattoir prices trended sideways and experienced muted declines in AB and B grades, whereas A and C grades experienced slight increases. The overall performance in the cattle subsector during October remained modest,” the Board further said in an update.
The Weaner/B2 price ratio remained at 39% during October 2023. This is 25 percentage points lower than the benchmark ratio of 64%. This is also 21 percentage points lower than the 61% ratio recorded during the same period last year implying a shift in marketing dynamics.
“This year has generally seen drier conditions, which have caused an influx of weaners on markets. 2023 YTD the total number of animals auctioned have grown by 15.44% compared to the previous year. However, price trends do indicate seasonality, with the expected prices to moderately pick up towards year end,” further stated the Board.
SAFEX Feed prices have consistently remained below N$5 000/ton for yellow maize since November 2022 and are expected to follow on this trend throughout 2023. Prices have however picked up on a m-o-m basis by 1.43% from September to October.
“Despite El Nino expectations, a bumper harvest is expected for 2023/24 production season. Subdued demand is expected due to the outbreak of Avian Influenza and may impact prices. For this reason prices are expected to remain trending sideways for the coming months.”
US prices continued with a sideways movement in prices. US continues to face various adversities influenced by beef production declines, which is expected to further push prices up due to supply shortages. Expectations are that the reserves will remain low for the remainder of the year, which can influence the international global market price dynamics, given they are the largest producer of beef in the world. In Australia, prices continue trending towards the ebb with markets being flooded with stock. Slaughter has increased causing an increase in export volumes.
Australian exports grew by 7% from September and 44% on a y-o-y basis. Exports in October are recorded to be the highest since 2019.
“The main destination for beef exports is North America, with over 27 613 tonnes being exported to the USA, followed by China and Japan. South African producer prices remain trending sideways between N$47/kg and N$49/kg. It is noted that the number of cattle slaughtered have increased due to a slight increase in demand. It is expected that prices will increase during the coming festive season and then will drop in the beginning of 2024 due expectations of a softened demand. South African weaner prices are also expected to trend slightly higher due to supply shortages normally experienced during the festive seasons.”