With most of Namibia’s fish exports going to Europe and SADC member states, the export bill of fish has increased for the 9th consecutive month, seeing a 60.2% y/y increase in May 2023.
According to a report released by Simonis Storm, the export bill rose from N$697 million in May 2022 to N$1.1 billion in May 2023.
“The fishing sector is in a phase of maturity in its business cycle, signalling a limitation in its potential for further expansion. Presently, hake stands out as the sole fish variety with the capacity for growth, a potential that could extend across centuries if subjected to effective management practices.
“However, other species are currently exhibiting minimal growth potentially due to having already attained full capacity. Namibia’s fishing sector has maintained its Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) certification. This certification underscores the sustainability of Namibian oceanic fish stocks, the minimal environmental ramifications arising from fishing activities, and the overall proficient management of operations,” economist Angelique Bock says.
Bock goes on to note that an impending risk emerges from the on-going diamond mining endeavours.
“These activities generate sound waves that disturb fish and their habitat, leading to adverse effects on the fishing environment. Consequently, fishermen face challenges in capturing sufficient quantities of fish. Presently, this risk is deemed relatively contained.
“However, the expansion of diamond mining activities within the oceanic realm could elevate this risk to a more prominent and prevalent level,” Bock said.
In July 2023, the increase in fish prices was measured at 12.6% y/y. This is higher than the increase of 11.7% y/y recorded in June 2023 but lower than the 13.3% y/y recorded in May 2023. This is the highest levels fish inflation has reached since October 2017.
“This is likely due to the fishing industry’s reliance on fuel and the fact the price of nets and ropes used to catch the fish move with the price of oil. Indeed, during the month of July 2023, Brent Crude’s price increased by 14.23% m/m. These higher costs for essential materials used in fishing operations are then passed on to consumers as higher fish prices,” explained Bock.
Meanwhile, Namibia’s fishing and livestock sector remains an upward driver of GDP, while crop farming weighs down on it. In June 2023, in the agriculture space, Namibia was a net exporter of fish (N$1.5 billion), live animals (N$192.2 million) and meat (N$99.5 million). These have consistently been the country’s independent commodities that positively contribute to GDP.
However, on the flip side, cocoa (- N$500 000), rice (- N$18.6 million), coffee (- N$24.9 million), maize (- N$25.1 million) and wheat (- N$297.3 million) all have trade deficits.
“According to our Budget Note of 2023/24, agriculture was identified as one of the job creator sectors and Agriculture and Land Reform received a 26.5% higher budget allocation compared to the previous financial year. With the upcoming Mid-term budget review of 2023/24, it will be imperative to see the progress that government has made so far in the agriculture sector,” Bock said.
Total number of heads marketed for the month of July 2023 came in lower than previous months. Although marketing for the month under review recorded a decline in growth of 8.7% m/m, it outperformed on an annual basis by 26.4% y/y, from 99,389 heads marketed in July 2022 to 125,635 heads marketed in July 2023. Growth was driven by sheep (↑ 37.1% y/y), goat (↑ 18.4% y/y), cattle (up 9.1% y/y) and pig (up 16.7% y/y) heads marketed.
This is the highest annual growth rate for pig heads marketed and the first time it recorded a double-digit growth rate. YTD, slaughtering activity has outperformed activity in the same period of previous years, posting a 21.3% increase in the number of heads slaughtered. This increase is driven by cattle (up 20.7%), sheep (up 33.2%) and pigs (up 1.2%) activity, while goats (down 80.4%) slaughtered weighed down on the growth. The number of heads slaughtered remains short of pre-pandemic levels. Heads marketed are 17.2% short when compared to the same period in 2019.
Local exports have performed well since the start of the year, outperforming 2020 to 2022 export levels. Total live exports have increased by 31.5% y/y, mainly driven by sheep (up 45.5% y/y) and goat (up 24.1% y/y) exports, while the number of live cattle exports remain flat (down 0.1% y/y). YTD, 559,143 heads were exported – 20.5% higher than the same period last year (464,045 heads) and 6.2% short of reaching 2019 export level (595,895 heads) for the same period (January to July).