Namibia’s vital primary industries – the backbone of its economy alongside mining – present a starkly contrasting picture for 2025 and 2026, according to the latest Economic Outlook report from the Bank of Namibia (BoN). While a crippling drought legacy hammers livestock farming and persistent headwinds buffet diamond mining, a surging uranium sector and resilient metal ores offer crucial counterweights, painting a coplex landscape of challenge and opportunity for the nation’s resource-dependent economy.
The overall primary sector (agriculture, forestry, fishing, and mining & quarrying) is projected to contract slightly by 0.2% in 2025 before recovering modestly to 0.9% growth in 2026. However, this muted aggregate figure masks dramatic swings within its key components, heavily influenced by climate, global markets, and technological shifts.
Livestock reeling from drought’s long shadow
The most severe impact is felt in livestock farming, which is forecast to plummet by a devastating 16.8% in 2025. This sharp decline is a direct consequence of the severe drought experienced in 2024, which forced farmers to market cattle prematurely, significantly depleting national herd sizes. The lingering effects mean farmers simply lack sufficient market-ready livestock in 2025. This represents a drastic downward revision of 13.2 percentage points from the April 2025 forecast, highlighting the severity and persistence of the drought’s impact. While some recovery is anticipated in 2026 (-2.7%), the sector faces a long road back to pre-drought levels. Consequently, the broader Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing sector is expected to shrink by 6.0% in 2025 after a 2.7% decline in 2024.
Crop farming offers a glimmer of hope
In contrast to the livestock catastrophe, crop farming and forestry are projected to rebound strongly in 2025, with output expected to surge by 8.6%. This recovery is primarily attributed to significantly improved rainfall patterns compared to the previous year. While not enough to offset the livestock collapse entirely, this growth provides vital support to rural communities and the agricultural supply chain. Fishing and fish processing onboard are also expected to see a less severe contraction (-4.7%) in 2025 before returning to growth (+2.2%) in 2026.
Diamond mining: A sector under siege
Namibia’s iconic diamond mining sector faces continued pressure, projected to contract for the third consecutive year. Output is forecast to shrink by 4.5% in 2025 and a further 5.7% in 2026, building on a 3.7% decline in 2024. This prolonged downturn is driven by a potent mix of weak global demand for natural diamonds, significantly increased competition from cheaper, lab-grown synthetic alternatives, and reduced consumption in key international markets. The BoN report explicitly identifies these as structural issues likely to persist in the medium term, posing an existential challenge to the traditional diamond mining model. While the 2025 forecast represents a slight upward revision (1.7 percentage points) from April due to marginally better-than-expected performance, the overall trajectory remains deeply negative.
Uranium: The shining star
Offsetting the diamond gloom is an extraordinary boom in uranium mining. The subsector is projected to explode by 23.3% in 2025, a dramatic acceleration from the modest 1.8% growth recorded in 2024. This surge is underpinned by both increased production volumes and, crucially, sustained high global demand for uranium as a source of clean, reliable nuclear energy. The global push for energy security and decarbonization is directly benefiting Namibia’s significant uranium resources. The 2025 forecast represents a massive upward revision of 15.8 percentage points from the April outlook. While growth is expected to moderate in 2026 (+6.2%), the sector remains a powerhouse, significantly boosted by an upward revision of 0.1 percentage points for that year.
Metal ores and other mining show resilience
The metal ores subsector is also poised for robust growth, forecast at 8.3% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026, up from 5.2% in 2024. This improved performance is driven by the processing of higher-grade ore from open-pit mining operations and contributions from expanding underground mining activities. Elevated international gold prices provide a further tailwind, enhancing the profitability and outlook for gold and associated metal mining. However, significant revisions mark the forecasts: a 12.9 percentage point upgrade for 2025 but a substantial 15.7 percentage point downgrade for 2026, reflecting updated production timelines and expectations.
Other mining and quarrying, which includes oil and gas exploration, is expected to recover in 2025 (+3.4%) and accelerate further in 2026 (+6.5%). This rebound is attributed to the resumption of oil and gas exploration activities alongside increased prospecting in the broader mining sector. Despite the positive growth trajectory, the pace is slower than previously hoped, leading to downward revisions of 8.6 percentage points for 2025 and 3.1 percentage points for 2026 compared to the April forecast.
Balancing risks and opportunities
The outlook for Namibia’s primary industries underscores the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks and global trends. The devastating impact of the 2024 drought on livestock is a stark reminder of climate vulnerability. The structural decline in diamond mining highlights the threat posed by technological disruption and shifting consumer preferences. Conversely, the uranium boom demonstrates the potential windfall from global energy transitions, while metal ores benefit from commodity cycles and operational improvements.
The BoN report cautions that significant downside risks persist, including potential trade disruptions from protectionist policies and ongoing global conflicts, which could impact commodity prices and export earnings. The reliance on primary industries, particularly mining susceptible to price volatility (like diamonds and oil impacting Angola and Nigeria regionally), underscores the long-term imperative for Namibia to diversify its economic base.
Conclusion: A sector at a crossroads
Namibia’s primary industries stand at a crossroads in 2025. While the severe contraction in livestock and the ongoing decline in diamonds present substantial headwinds, the remarkable surge in uranium and solid growth in metal ores provide critical economic ballast. The divergent paths within the sector highlight the complex interplay of climate, global markets, technology, and policy. Navigating this landscape requires resilience from farmers and miners alike, alongside strategic policy focus on mitigating climate risks, supporting affected sectors like livestock, capitalizing on high-demand resources like uranium, and steadfastly pursuing economic diversification to reduce long-term vulnerability. The performance of these foundational industries will be pivotal in determining whether Namibia’s overall economic growth slows to 3.5% in 2025 as projected, or finds a stronger footing for the 3.9% rebound hoped for in 2026.