When the first major oil discoveries were announced in Namibia’s Orange Basin in 2022, the global energy industry took notice. But according to Modestus Amutse, Minister of Industries, Mines and Energy, the discoveries themselves were merely a geological event. The real achievement that will determine Namibia’s success lies in what happens above the ground.
Speaking at the Offshore Northern Seas programme in Norway on Wednesday, Minister Amutse delivered a keynote address that reframed the narrative around Namibia’s emerging petroleum sector, distinguishing between discovery and what he termed “investability” – an institutional achievement that must be deliberately constructed.
“Discovery is a geological event; investability is an institutional achievement,” Minister Amutse told the gathering of international energy executives and policymakers. “That distinction matters when we speak about the Orange Basin.”
The discoveries beginning with Graff and Venus in 2022, followed by Jonker, Mopane and further finds, have confirmed a working petroleum system and placed Namibia on the global deep-water map. The Minister noted that at Venus, partners have defined a development concept centred on a floating production system of approximately 160,000 barrels per day and are working towards a potential final investment decision. At Mopane, Galp and TotalEnergies have set out further exploration and appraisal, while recent results in PEL 85 have broadened understanding of the basin.
However, Minister Amutse offered a sober assessment of the path ahead, noting that not every well will succeed and not every discovery will become a producing field. These are capital-intensive projects in deep and ultra-deep water, competing globally for investment.
“Investability does not mean the absence of risk,” the Minister emphasised. “It means that risk is understood, allocated, managed and priced.”
The Minister drew attention to a critical observation from discussions at ONS: the shortage is not of capital, but of investable projects with predictable risk. “That is where government and industry must meet,” he said. “Geology belongs to nature; predictability belongs to us.”
Namibia’s proposition rests on four foundations that distinguish it from other frontier exploration destinations. First is political and legal stability, with Namibia described as a constitutional democracy governed by the rule of law that protects investment, allows the repatriation of profits and subjects public power to accountability and oversight.
Second, clear and capable institutions, including the Upstream Petroleum Unit in the Presidency which strengthens coordination and focus as the sector moves towards development. The Minister indicated that the legal framework is being modernised while maintaining transparency and accountability.
Third, commercial realism. “Government cannot command geology to become commercial or ask capital to ignore economics,” Minister Amutse stated. “Our framework must protect the national interest while allowing responsible investors to earn a competitive return.”
Fourth, shared value through the recently approved National Upstream Petroleum Local Content Policy, which creates a practical pathway for jobs, local procurement, enterprise development, skills, technology and meaningful Namibian participation.
Moving from discovery to investability means building the ecosystem around the resource: marine and logistics services, engineering capability, environmental science, training and research, and reliable energy, water and transport infrastructure.
The Minister adopted a pragmatic approach to localisation, acknowledging that Namibia will not localise every component from the first day and should not pretend that it can. However, local participation must deepen as the industry matures, and early investment in people and institutions must begin before first production – not after it.
“For a partnership to endure, it must work for both sides,” the Minister said. “The investor must see a competitive project. Namibia must see opportunity beyond taxes and royalties. And the Namibian child must ultimately see a difference in education, infrastructure, energy access and economic possibility.”
The Minister addressed the relationship between petroleum development and the energy transition, stating that the two should not be viewed as automatic opposites. Namibia is still expanding electricity access, creating industries and building the productive capacity of its economy. “The energy transition cannot be a choice between development and decarbonisation,” the Minister declared. “It must be the means through which we achieve both.”
Managed with discipline and transparency, the Orange Basin can help Namibia invest in people, infrastructure and a diversified economy – including renewable energy, green industries and critical-mineral value chains.
The Minister also addressed perceptions of African energy investment as inherently high-risk, arguing that while every major energy project carries risk, perception becomes a problem when it treats an entire continent as one category and ignores the commercial reality of individual countries and projects.
“In Namibia, that commercial reality is a stable jurisdiction, serious operators, an increasingly well-understood basin and a government determined to learn from the experience of others,” the Minister said, acknowledging the value of strong institutions and long-term thinking demonstrated in Norway.
“The discoveries have given us an opportunity, not an entitlement. Investability must still be earned through competence, consistency and trust,” he concluded.
Ultimately, the Orange Basin will not be judged only by the number of barrels produced. It will be judged by whether it strengthens energy security, builds Namibian capability, creates competitive businesses and leaves the country more resilient than it found it.
“Discovery tells us what lies beneath the seabed. Investability will be measured by what we build above it. Namibia is ready to build that future with partners who share our confidence, our realism and our commitment to lasting value,” the Minister said.