Namibia Critical Metals reported a strong set of economics for its Lofdal heavy rare earths project in Namibia, outlining two development scenarios that highlight the deposit’s potential to become one of the few significant sources of dysprosium, terbium and yttrium outside China.
The prefeasibility study presents a base case that assumes a partial easing of China’s export bottlenecks, and a divergent case that factors in prolonged export controls and rising strategic demand.
Under the base case, the project carries a pre-tax net present value (NPV) of US$389.2 million and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 21.7%.
The divergent case lifts the NPV to US$1.25 billion with a pre-tax IRR of 44.1%.
Pre-production capital costs of US$273.4 million and total capital costs of US$347.9 million are unchanged between the scenarios.
Average annual production is pegged at 1,478 tonnes of rare earth oxides excluding lanthanum and cerium, including 119 tonnes of dysprosium, 17.8 tonnes of terbium and 841 tonnes of yttrium. The 13-year mine plan is based on 32 million tonnes of proven and probable reserves.
The project is being advanced through a joint venture with Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) to secure long-term supplies for Japan.
President Darrin Campbell said Lofdal stands out as “one of very few advanced major Dy/Tb- and Y projects outside China,” adding that its economic case is supported by strengthening demand across high-temperature magnets, aerospace, semiconductors and turbine manufacturing. “This diversified critical-material exposure increases the strategic attractiveness of Lofdal for OEMs and governments,” he said.
The PFS uses average life-of-mine heavy rare earth pricing of US$663/kg for dysprosium oxide and US$2,880/kg for terbium oxide in the base case, rising to US$855/kg and us$3,712/kg respectively in the divergent case. Basket prices excluding lanthanum and cerium average US$158/kg in the base case and US$230/kg in the divergent case.
Namibia Critical Metals said capital cost increases from its 2022 preliminary assessment reflect inflation, expanded hydrometallurgical work, mining pre-strip needs and updated power requirements.
Total operating costs over the mine life are estimated at US$1.68 billion, or US$63.75 per kilogram of rare earth oxides produced.
The Lofdal project, located in Namibia’s Kunene region and permitted under a 25-year mining license, has been explored for more than a decade and hosts combined measured and indicated resources of 58.5 million tonnes at 0.16% total rare earth oxides.